Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Reverse Look Up Table for Psychic Powers

Below is a table that allows you to look up your calculated affect on the probability of each coin flip that goes into determing every point. Since ten thousand (10,000) coin flips go into every point (the little red/blue squares at the center), a small affect on the probability can have a large affect on your probability of winning a point.

For example, a 0.05% affect on your probability of winning a coin flip translates into a 3.98% increase in your probability of winning a point.

Here's how you use it. Look up your calculated % chance of winning a point on your stats page (does not exist yet), and match that as closely as possible to the number at the right, under P(Z > z) = P(Winning a Point). Then go to the left in the same row to find your correlating probability of winning a coin flip.

Enjoy!

n = Number of Trials

p = P(Winning a Coin Flip)

E[X] = np

STD[X] = sqrt(npq)

z = ( 5000 - E[X]/STD[X])

P(Z > z) = P(Winning a Point)

10000

0.5050

5050

49.8075

-1.0001

0.8413

10000

0.5045

5045

49.8080

-0.8000

0.8159

10000

0.5040

5040

49.8084

-0.8000

0.7881

10000

0.5035

5035

49.8088

-0.7000

0.7580

10000

0.5030

5030

49.8091

-0.6000

0.7257

10000

0.5025

5025

49.8094

-0.5000

0.6915

10000

0.5020

5020

49.8096

-0.4000

0.6554

10000

0.5015

5015

49.8098

-0.3000

0.6179

10000

0.5010

5010

49.8080

-0.2000

0.5793

10000

0.5005

5005

50.0000

-0.1000

0.5398

10000

0.5000

5000

50.0000

0.0000

5.0000










*q = 1 - p



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